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And 4 years and 2 days after their last meeting, it has come to this, Saúl “Canelo” Álvarez and Gennady “GGG” Golovkin will accommodate each other for a 3rd (and last?)time. When this superfight was first hypothesized back in late 2015, the general consensus was that Golovkin would prove to be too much for Canelo. The general idea back then, was that Canelo – who had started his career (slightly)below 140 pounds – was too small a man to overcome a dominating powerhouse Champion who had fought his whole career at 160 pounds.
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But it would take Canelo nearly 2 years to get inside the ring with the Kazakh Destroyer. Canelo is 8 years and 3 months younger than “GGG”, so depending on when they fought, either Canelo would be too unexperienced to beat Golovkin, or Golovkin would be too old to beat Canelo and we all know successful careers are often nurtured with sensible, cautious and “predatory” matchmaking.
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And when they first met, back on September 16th of 2017, Golovkin was still only 35 years old, while Canelo was 27 years old, and inside the ring it showed… Golovkin just had a physicality and “arrogance” beyond Canelo, and I “judged” that fight in favour or Golovkin by a full 4 points. Quite simply, the Eastern European got “jobbed” to the sport’s main commercial attraction.
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I felt that in GGG’s favour in that first fight were the fact that he seemed stronger, unsurprisingly the more concussive puncher, sturdier chinned and the more daring of the two contestants. Golovkin fought going forward, pressing the action, walking straight through Canelo’s powershots to his head, and had a great jab, one of Boxing’s premier “sticks”. But Canelo “survived” with a draw and survived (as they say) to fight another day, a day when he’d be more experienced, more acclimatized to the weight, and Golovkin would likely be a little older and more “decrepit“.
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And when they had their second date, on September 15th of 2018, we saw a different fight, with a different dynamic. That time, we actually saw Canelo press the action, go forward and make Golovkin fight on the back foot. Somebody else was the “bully” that night. Needless to say, the judges are impressed with fighters that go forward and therefore, saw Canelo in a more positive light in the rematch.
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But to my eyes, Golovkin still had two major weapons. He still had that ramrod left jab, and his physical conditioning down the stretch still was more impressive than Canelo’s. I gave that one to GGG (judges saw it differently) as well, but by a mere 2 points. Canelo had improved (or adjusted) and Golovkin had ostensibly lost the initiative but still showed enough guile and stamina to pull it out (on my scorecard).
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And now, this coming Saturday (my Birthday) they meet yet again, and rightfully so, as many others like myself, felt that Golovkin won both fights (or at worse, won the first and drew the second). But this time, it is a contradistinct narrative.
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It is no longer a dominant 35 year old “welcoming” a (fairly)inexperienced 27 year old. Rather, it’s a 32 year old Canelo close to his prime, “receiving” a 40 year old Golovkin in a new weight division (168 pounds) where the Mexican has been (more than) reasonably dominant himself. Personally, I’m a fan of both, but I like Golovkin better. And any way you slice it, this should be a good fight, much like many regard Ali vs Frazier 3 as the best of the bunch.
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On that regard, I’d have to manifestly disagree, as I felt that by October of 1975, a 33 year old Muhammad Ali was already corporeally “washed up” and his technique was nowhere near as sharp as it had been in the mid to late 1960s.
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And at just 31, Joe Frazier himself had already taken a lot of punishment, and had many a mile amassed on his “fistic odometer“. Some (such as myself) might say that in Manilla they fought their best fight of the trilogy because physically they had decayed to the point where they no longer had the footwork, reflexes, head movement or waist movement to get out of the way of the gloved-up “incoming”. And for those reasons, it proved to be their most violent (an unfortunate byproduct of Boxing, but not its main appeal, in my opinion) and “selvatic” of entanglements.
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A lesson I learned early on watching Boxing, is that one of the 2 fighters is always physically stronger than the other, and this is easy to tell, for usually, the “weaker” fighter tends to circle the stronger one, he lets him have center ring and goes around him, circling away (usually rightward) from his “lesser hand“(the non-dominant one) probing for openings, and he also tends to back up, which obviously does not permit him to generate as much leverage on his punches. Nobody can fight as proficiently going rearwards, not even the great “Sugar” Ray Robinson.
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Despite his vaunted power and supposed physicality, Golovkin has actually always been a fairly scientific Boxer-puncher and not a mere puncher. Even when he was younger than he is now, and often facing what seemed like less than spectacular opposition, GGG often would circle and back up. He is incontestably more impressive going forward, but he can fight (although less dexterously) backing up, in part, due to his power, his jab and his underrated footwork.
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As I’ve watched Golovkin’s more recent fights with Sergiy Derevyanchenko and Ryota Murata, I saw a fighter in apparent physical (and technical) decline. He’s backing up more than ever, and he conveys the impression of tiring more easily. Plus, although he seems to retain his power, much like Ali in the mid-late 1970s, he’s “pawing” his punches, he doesn’t look sharp, dynamic and crisp as before, almost as if he’s “limp wristed“(no joke intended) at the time of contact.
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Since Canelo has fought (with some success) as high up as 175 pounds, and Golovkin is coming up from 160, many people see this as a disadvantage. Concerning this “weighty” matter, I should expound on it in the following way, it does not matter to me if in Canelo’s next fight he fights Oleksandr Usyk at 200 pounds, for in my estimation, GGG will always be the naturally bigger man, and if you look at his bone structure and width and thickness of his humongous back (he likely does pullups all day and every day), you’ll reach the same conclusion, no matter how many pounds Canelo’s piles up via the gym and the kitchen table.
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After the 2nd Canelo fight, Golovkin not only switched trainers (out went Abel Sanchez and in came Johnathon Banks), but he revamped his entire team by “modernizing” it with a strength and conditioning coach (Christopher Camacho) as well as well as a nutritionist (James Lockwood). And in a way, it was positive that the 3rd fight did not happen in 2019, that way, Golovkin and his new team had 4 training camps to get to know each other’s training methodologies, which was for the better, as there is only so much a coach (and he jury is still out on Mr. Banks’ quality…) can do for a fighter in a single camp.
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Many people seem to think, that since Canelo improved so much from 2017 to 2018 vs Golovkin, then logic would suggest that in 2022, Canelo would show himself clearly to be too much for the now 40 year old Golovkin by not only beating him, but defeating him decisively (by KO).
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And yes, Golovkin is now 5 years older than when he beat (but got “robbed“) Canelo in 2017, and yes, he has looked less than (as)impressive vs Derevyanchenko, and to a degree vs Murata (who is not exactly smallish, nor “pillow fisted“). Gennadiy like many older fighters, also does not seem to (longer?)have the “stomach” (no pun intended) to get punched in the torso, and Canelo is doubtlessly a first string body puncher.
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But I wouldn’t be so quick to write about Golovkin’s KO demise. I wonder if Canelo and Golovkin despite advancing years are not so evenly matched that they are destined to always go the full 12 rounds (unless they fight again in 5 to 10 years). Was Golovkin able to go the distance in 2017 and 2018 because he was 4 and 5 years younger than he is now, or because he just has the chin, conditioning, jab, grit and pride that will always pose problems for Canelo? I would not be shocked if this one also reaches the final bell.
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Considering that Canelo is physically fresher, possibly more(or maybe not…) energetic and more well rounded technically, not to mention more than 8 years younger, it would be a sensible bet to pick him to win. But…
What if Golovkin has one last great fight/effort in him? What if he saw the first 2 fights and decides – assuming that physically he can do so, and that Canelo “allows” him to do so – to revert to his style from the first fight and go forward, making good use of that world class jab, sitting down in his punches, pressing Canelo, walking(rushing is a more apt description) through his shots and impressing the fans (and hopefully, the judges as well)?
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Plus, despite the favourable difference in age, here’s a pertinent question, does Canelo at 32 have better stamina during the 2nd half of a fight than Golovkin does at 40? I’m not not so certain, remember that last May at 175 pounds, Canelo looked pretty winded in the Championship rounds vs Dmitry Bivol, and this shows every sign of being a “chronic” problem for Canelo.
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He got tired in 2013 vs Mayweather Jr., in 2018 vs Golovkin, and in 2022 vs Bivol. Plus, in my experience, it is physically not as burdensome to go up 8 pounds and retain your athletic prowess than it is when dieting down 7 pounds.
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The question is, will Canelo go to GGG’s ribcage? For the way I ratiocinate it, even at 40, Golovkin can absorb power punches to the face all night long, but like most “elder statesmen”, he doesn’t like to take it it in ribs. Plus, one of Golovkin’s more impressive feats in the ring was when during the 2nd fight vs Canelo, at the halfway mark, I felt the fight was slipping away from him, but he did some “soul searching” in between rounds and he came roaring back in a fashion that allowed him to impose himself and sweep all 4 final rounds on my card. Yes, 4 years ago, a 36 year old out gutted and out endured a much younger man (who was/is also a proud warrior).
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I think that the more likely outcome for this one is a Canelo points win, maybe even a KO after an accumulation of body punches might force Golovkin to take a knee or even retire on his stool in the corner (it has happened to many great ones, arguably, to even to greater ones than Golovkin), but it’s not unfathomable that with appropriate judging, Golovkin could conceivably win this one on points (although I’d “love” to see Canelo get KOed).
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One thing I noticed vs Murata, is that from an aesthetic standpoint, Golovkin seemed to be in greater shape than even before. He’s never had a “body beautiful“, but he looked more muscularly defined than ever before back in May.
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And even during this week in Vegas, even under his sweatsuit, his upper body seems more “bulgy” than even before, particularly, his biceps, outer pectorals and deltoids. We will see how his conditioning is with the 8 additional pounds. Emotionally, Golovkin also seems the more collected and focused of the two. Canelo looks upset all the time ever since he lost to Bivol, or when the topic of a Golovkin rematch has been broached over the past 4 years.
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One thing that may very well “doom” GGG, is the fact that is contract with the DAZN runs out after this fight, and if the his paymasters have any “influence” with the judges, it’s natural to assume that they’d prefer the winner to be the man who they will still have under contract, and expectantly with a few more years left to give to the sport and generate more revenue for them. The fight’s promotor (Eddie Hearn) would naturally also be partial to his (remaining) “cash cow”(Canelo) emerging victoriously.
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When it’s all said and done, and no more “marketing” is required, I suspect they’ll embrace “fraternally” in the middle of the ring, like “Sugar” Shane Mosley vs Oscar De La Hoya did as well back in 2003 (also in mid-September) and 2000. Acrimony permitting it, maybe Canelo and Golovkin, like Mosley and De La Hoya (did so twice 19 and 22 years ago), they too are destined to always go the distance, and at the end of it, – when hype is no longer necessary, nor desired- once more embrace. As it should be, between two proper gentlemen.
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Good luck, Gennadiy! One last ride!!
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Parque das Nações,
Friday, September 16th, 2022.
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Text: Ronald William Miller.
Image: All rights reserved.
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