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Boxing, like any other Sport – since its “mediatic emancipation” in the early 70s – is very much a business, and in order to keep a business going, you need fresh “attractions” and “commodities” being “spun” at a rapid rate. Therefore, promotors, trainers, agents, scouts, etc, much like in Football, are always on the lookout for the “next big thing“. Be it in grimy gyms, amateur tournaments, Olympics, sparring sessions, etc. They are perpetually in search for the next product to unleash unto the public’s imagination.
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There used to be a time, in the 1990s, where prospects such as Oscar De La Hoya, Felix Trinidad or Fernando Vargas were winning their first world titles at the aged of 20 or 21, sometimes not against the premier attraction in the division, perhaps versus a “secondary” titlist, but the young phenoms then were being thrown deep early on.
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And, as an acclaimed newspaperman once said, “Talent tells! Talent tells!!“. You either have a “Lamborghini” in your garage, or a Seat Ibiza. And every so often, one cannot tell the difference, unless he takes “it” out on the road and gives it a good spin, but oftentimes, the “eye test” can tell us plenty enough already.
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If you examine today’s “stock” of would-be stars, you might “trip” over names such as Brandun Lee(23) Jaron Ennis (25), Vergil Ortiz Jr. (24), Ryan Garcia (24), etc. And even current day stars such as Errol Spence Jr. didn’t take the “final plunge” until he was already a seasoned pro at the age of 27.
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Depending on who you ask or consult, young Vergil (19-0-0 19 KOs) is already ranked no worse than 4th, 5th or 7th best Welterweight (147 pounds) in the entire planet. And at this junction, seeing as there are only two title holders in Errol Spence and Terrence Crawford, and both are (rightly or wrongly) rated in the “Pound for Pound” top 4, the question is, “where to now for young Vergil?”
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Can Vergil Ortiz right now beat Spence or Crawford? I seriously doubt it…! Make no equivocation, Ortiz is a big, strong, vigorous, well-built, heavy-handed young man, but as far as his defense goes, it seems (at a minimum… to these eyes) too porous for him and moreover too narrow-skilled to be successful against the division’s top echelon.
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Ortiz is a hard puncher, and as is usually typical of “KO Artists“, they tend to punch more than they Box. Or to put it another way, he seems inclined to throw power shots after power shots, and seems less engaged in jabbing and showing… “sophisticated” footwork. Plus, he headhunts quite a lot, oftentimes disregarding the thoracic cage.
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If I was managing his career, I’d next steer him in the direction of former WBA titlist Yordenis Ugas. The Cuban is now 36 years old, yet still has plenty of cachet and is for the most part considered (by many) to be a top 3 147 pounder. And having already been inside the ring with Errol Spence, he could provide an interesting “parallel” as to where Ortiz currently is in his development.
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Alternatively, I don’t really see much/many that would entice me or motivate the fighter. What purpose would it serve for Ortiz to “tangle” with Keith Thurman – who at 33 is still dangerous and fresh -? Or Jaron Ennis who is an equally (or even more so) well-regarded and scrutinized prospect? That fight will make all the more sense financially (and sporting wise) in the future when both are holding titles, should they prove equal to such challenges.
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Who else is out there? Eimantas Stanionis? Cody Crowley? David Avanesyan? Radzhab Butaev? Who will pay genuine coin to see such contests? Only journalists. Nobody else would prove to be such a “glutton for punishment“. As for a fight with Conor Benn. That may very well become a major money spinner and intriguing fight in a couple of years, especially, if it is held in England.
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On the whole, am I impressed with Ortiz either as an athlete or technician? Without reserve I can say that I am not. Specifically once you consider all the commotion surrounding him. You’d be pardoned for thinking that they were hyping up the 1983 (19 year old) version of Tony Ayala Jr.
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Allegedly, Ortiz has been having trouble making 147 pounds – he recently weighed in at 146,6 pounds vs Michael McKinson – and at first, I thought that such troubles were the result of poor dieting, but having examined his most recent weigh-in clinically, he is a big boy at Welterweight, with a wide pelvic skeleton, not suited for “shrinking” down to Junior-Welterweight any more, and soon enough in a growing boy the likes of him, too large a skeletal structure to allow him to keep making 147 safely.
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If Ortiz vs Spence were to be signed for this Fall, I might at most be able to envision Ortiz going the distance (and could very well be an entertaining piece of business), but losing the decision to the veteran. The way I observe it, Ortiz just loads up too much on his “haymakers” and would be primed for Spence’s counters and more solid boxing skills. Vs Crawford, I think there’s a likely chance that Ortiz would lose by KO, quite simply stated, the young Texan just gets hit too much. He’s great going forward, but not so impressive on the “preventive”.
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Then again, there is a reason why fights are not fought on paper. Lest we forget, Crawford was seriously hurt by Yuriorkis Gamboa, and Ortiz is considerably bigger than Gamboa. The Omahan was also stunned by Egidijus Kavaliauskas. Spence was also taken aback by Ugas‘s power. And again, Ortiz is a naturally much bigger man than Ugas is.
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Not meaning to give offense, I also rate Ortiz as a typical “latino” fighter, in the sense that he plods about considerably, does not seem to be overly athletic, and perhaps also not the most adaptive or imaginative practitioner in there.
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Indeed, I observe a flat footed, one dimensional, defensively suspect fighter, whose “saving graces” thus far have been his ungodly power, commodious strength and physical robustness. For such a basically skilled fighter, I cannot envisage him fairing too well in opposition to a dynamic and multifaceted boxer-puncher such as Crawford.
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Perhaps because of these shortcomings, his handlers at Golden Boy Promotions supposedly haven’t exactly fallen over themselves to get him in there with a slick, able-bodied black fighter, even someone such as Rashidi Ellis, who is barely a top 15 rated Welter, but stylistically, perhaps all wrong for the much hyped (and banked upon) Ortiz. Understandably, his promoters are protecting their investment, who when the time comes, may very well show himself to be little more than a “paper tiger” with a lot of publicity and a good matchmaker(one Roberto Diaz) by his side.
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Errol Spence on the contrary, might present a less demanding threat to overcome. Even though the unified WBA, WBC and IBF Champion is unmistakably the superior technician, notwithstanding Spence looking quite strong and is almost always in superlative condition, I have never counted him as one of the game’s foremost athletes.
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Yes, Spence is strong and well-conditioned, but he is not uncommonly fast of hand, nor does he have “state-of-the-art” footwork. Plus, Spence’s defense has often shown to be less admirable than his assault. Stylistically, Spence seems far more… “accessible” for Ortiz than Crawford. It is not by chance that I class Crawford as #1 at 147.
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Financially, hypothetical confrontations between Ortiz and Spence, Crawford or Ennis, should all be counted upon to be quite prosperous, as nothing sells better than a contest between Hispanics vs Blacks, seeing as the latino community is one of the most rabid, loyal and free-spending” in Boxing. And when it comes to fighters of Mexican paramountcy, Mexicanos and “Chicanos” (Mexican-Americans) love to see theirs pitted against Puerto-Ricans, African-Americans “Whites” or Mexican-Americans. It is always a guaranteed sellout.
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In fact, even though they might be (in theory) lesser matchups, it’s almost certain that an Ortiz vs an “elite Black Fighter” will generate more revenue than say… Spence vs Crawford, as blacks vs blacks for the most part, attracts one demographic, while latino vs black attracts two.
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In closing, in my appraisal, Vergil Ortiz Jr. is a flawed and limited prospect. At 24 he might presently be (just barely) a top 5 Welterweight, but can he beat the top 3 men in the division? Personally, I would not bet on it, nor would I rush him to attempt such a feat.
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I cannot blame his representatives for being more than a little gun shy at the idea of penciling him vs Terrence Crawford or Jaron Ennis. I’d keep him on a steady “diet” of Top 6-15 Welterweights and wait it out for more favorable tides. The blaring question being, can he wait/weight it out at 147 much longer? I suspect he cannot. And conditions should prove even more troublesome at 154 down the pike, where sterner competition lies waiting for him, with bated breath.
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Parque das Nações,
Wednesday, August 10th, 2022,
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Text: Ronald William Miller.
Image: All rights reserved.
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